Making, tracking and improving personal forecasts (e.g. the weather tomorrow or your salary in 2 years)

  • By Cleodora Forecasting
  • Last update: Dec 23, 2022
  • Comments: 14

Cleodora Forecasting

Software to track personal forecasts/predictions and systematically improve at making them.

Examples of such forecasts:

  • Will "The Fabelmans" win "Best Picture" at the Oscars 2023?
  • Will I get an A in my upcoming exam?
  • Will there be nice weather on my birthday?
  • Will the number of contributors for "Cleodora" be more than 3 at the end of 2022?

All information, including development guidelines, requirements and roadmap can be found on the website https://cleodora.org .

Dev Setup

git clone https://github.com/cleodora-forecasting/cleodora
cd cleodora
go get
cd frontend
npm install

Gitpod

A simple dev environment, directly in the browser.

Contribute with Gitpod (Note: the frontend won't currently work with Gitpod because the backend URL is hardcoded to localhost:8080).

Run

Backend (GraphQL API)

go run .

Frontend (React app)

cd frontend
npm start

Open http://localhost:3000

The backend should also be running, otherwise you will get an error.

Backend with statically embedded frontend

cd frontend
npm run build
cd ..
go run -tags frontend .

Open http://localhost:8080

Build

make build

You can find the binary containing everything under build/cleodora . Run it and access http://localhost:8080 in the browser.

GraphQL playground (GraphiQL)

Start frontend and backend as described above.

Open http://localhost:8080/playground/ in a browser and create some forecasts:

mutation createForecast {
    createForecast(
        input: {
            summary: "Will 'The Fabelmans' win 'Best Picture'?",
            description: "The new Steven Spielberg movie. Academy Award for Best Picture 2023.",
            resolves: "2023-03-01T12:00:00+01:00",
        }
    ) {
        id
        summary
        description
        created
        resolves
        closes
        resolution
    }
}

Open http://localhost:3000 in a browser and see the list of forecasts.

Tests

Setup

sudo apt install firefox-geckodriver

Execution

cd e2e_tests
npm install
node_modules/.bin/mocha --timeout 15000 frontPageTest.spec.js

Download

cleodora.zip

Comments(14)

  • 1

    Support multiple choice forecasts

    This is currently only planned for after the release 1.0, but they are in fact really useful. For example to forecast on PredictionBook what an exam result will be (out of 5 possible outcomes) I need to create five different forecasts and need to manually ensure that the total probability among them adds up to 100.

    It would be much nicer to do it like this:

    What grade will I get in my exam?

    • Grade A (20%)
    • Grade B (30%)
    • Grace C (40%)
    • Pass below C (5%)
    • Fail (5%)

    If later adjusting the probability for "Grade B" all the other probabilities could either shift automatically or before being able to save the user would need to ensure that everything adds up to 100.

  • 2

    Choose: GraphQL client library

    Options listed here https://graphql.org/code/#go

    • https://github.com/shurcooL/graphql -> Little recent activity
    • https://github.com/hasura/go-graphql-client -> Fork of the above, more active
    • https://github.com/Khan/genqlient
    • https://github.com/machinebox/graphql -> Company defunct
  • 3

    Bump web-vitals from 2.1.4 to 3.0.4 in /frontend

    Bumps web-vitals from 2.1.4 to 3.0.4.

    Changelog

    Sourced from web-vitals's changelog.

    v3.0.4 (2022-10-18)

    • Clamp LCP and FCP to 0 for prerendered pages (#270)

    v3.0.3 (2022-10-04)

    • Ensure attribution object is always present in attribution build (#265)

    v3.0.2 (2022-09-14)

    • Set an explicit unpkg dist file (#261)

    v3.0.1 (2022-08-31)

    • Use the cjs extension for all UMD builds (#257)

    v3.0.0 (2022-08-24)

    • [BREAKING] Add a config object param to all metric functions (#225)
    • [BREAKING] Report TTFB after a bfcache restore (#220)
    • [BREAKING] Only include last LCP entry in metric entries (#218)
    • Update the metric ID prefix for v3 (#251)
    • Move the Navigation Timing API polyfill to the base+polyfill build (#248)
    • Add a metric rating property (#246)
    • Add deprecation notices for base+polyfill builds (#242)
    • Add a new attribution build for debugging issues in the field (#237, #244)
    • Add support for prerendered pages (#233)
    • Rename the ReportHandler type to ReportCallback, with alias for back-compat (#225, #227)
    • Add support for the new INP metric (#221, #232)
    • Rename getXXX() functions to onXXX() (#222)
    • Add a navigationType property to the Metric object (#219)
    Commits
    • 7f0ed0b Release v3.0.4
    • 431eda6 Update CHANGELOG
    • c41fed3 Merge pull request #270 from tunetheweb/prerender-LCP-FCP
    • c334fb7 Merge pull request #269 from tunetheweb/fix-metric-specific-links
    • 24c309e Clamp LCP and FCP to 0 for prerendered pages
    • d63c605 Fix metrics-specific links
    • dfbd06e Release v3.0.3
    • c8ed235 Update CHANGELOG
    • 201b766 Merge pull request #265 from GoogleChrome/attribution-fixes
    • 7a598d1 Ensure attribution object is always present
    • Additional commits viewable in compare view

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  • 4

    Bump @types/node from 18.11.13 to 18.11.14 in /frontend

    Bumps @types/node from 18.11.13 to 18.11.14.

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  • 5

    Client: Consider whether to apply verb-noun or noun-verb paradigm

    i.e. cleoc add forecast or cleoc forecast add . Right now it's the former.

    https://github.com/fnproject/cli/issues/216 https://github.com/fnproject/cli/wiki/CLI-Analysis especially nice the idea of also allowing help on 'nouns' to see which verbs could apply.

    counter: https://simblob.blogspot.com/2019/10/verb-noun-vs-noun-verb.html https://www.usabilityfirst.com/glossary/noun-verb-paradigm/index.html https://nixos.org/manual/nix/stable/contributing/cli-guideline.html

  • 6

    Bump @testing-library/user-event from 13.5.0 to 14.4.3 in /frontend

    Bumps @testing-library/user-event from 13.5.0 to 14.4.3.

    Release notes

    Sourced from @​testing-library/user-event's releases.

    v14.4.3

    14.4.3 (2022-08-09)

    Bug Fixes

    v14.4.2

    14.4.2 (2022-08-04)

    Bug Fixes

    v14.4.1

    14.4.1 (2022-08-02)

    Bug Fixes

    v14.4.0

    14.4.0 (2022-08-02)

    Features

    Bug Fixes

    • event: be robust against incomplete event implementations (#1009) (289828b)
    • upload: be robust against missing FileList implementation (#1007) (a46b4d7)
    • keyboard: switch modifier state of lock keys on the correct event (#1003) (2852509)
    • keyboard: remove platform-specific additional key events for Control on AltGraph (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: dispatch contextmenu events with detail: 0 (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: always set PointerEvent.isPrimary (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: set button property on pointer events separately from legacy mouse events (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: click closest common ancestor if mousedown and mouseup happen on different elements (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: omit click event on release if another button is released first (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: dispatch mouseover, mouseenter and mousemove on disabled elements (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: prevent mouse* events per pointerdown event handler (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: dispatch *out and *over events when moving into / out of nested elements (#1003) (2852509)
    • pointer: dispatch *enter and *leave events on ancestors (#1003) (2852509)

    v14.3.0

    ... (truncated)

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  • 7

    Bump selenium-webdriver from 4.5.0 to 4.6.0 in /e2e_tests

    Bumps selenium-webdriver from 4.5.0 to 4.6.0.

    Release notes

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    Selenium 4.6.0

    Changelog

    For each component's detailed changelog, please check:

    Commits in this release

    • dbf63cff9dd - [dotnet] forgot to delete CDP v103 directory :: titusfortner
    • e219c447714 - Update list of java modules to upload to maven :: Simon Mavi Stewart
    • 316f9738a8e - isPromise() thenable fix (#11048) :: Chris Stringer
    • 3167e93110f - [py]: new tox recipe for isort in non diff only mode (#11005) :: Simon K
    • c686e6875c3 - [py]: Recipe for black; configure flake8 to work in tandem :: symonk
    • b5b495da3ce - [py]: format python tests with black :: symonk
    • fe9444df1b2 - [py]: consolidate and document linting changes; enable linting in gh actions :: symonk
    • eaa7ecceb6b - [py]: tidy exceptions.py code :: symonk
    • 9e0316636f0 - [py]: Run flake8 last as other linters fix most of its issues automatically :: symonk
    • f4a891523b3 - [py]: use f-strings in some tests :: symonk
    • 1c2f1cbd69b - [py]: Lint webdriver/safari/ in preparation for consolidating the driver API :: symonk
    • 4d8fc6ba596 - [py]: Document firefox service= arg. closes #11067 :: symonk
    • 31144ffdc4c - [py]: Additional types and tidying safari service :: symonk
    • 084ffc83001 - [py]: Revert removal of default executable global for safari :: symonk
    • 58c3c5c887a - [py]: Adding a start/stop interface for typing :: symonk
    • c09027bc5c6 - [py]: convert service_url to fstrings :: symonk
    • ca217d29ec9 - [py]: Exit 1 in ci when linter is failing :: symonk
    • ba04acdf9ea - [py]: Base Service tidy up :: symonk
    • 6b4281bd4bc - [py]: More internal refactoring of the base Service class :: symonk
    • e2add163783 - [py]: Apply black on the rest of the code base :: symonk
    • c59a267a0c4 - [py]: bugfix iterating stdout twice instead of stderr :: symonk
    • 49efb1c3873 - [py]: remove no_focus_so_name unused argument :: symonk
    • a8026c18431 - [py]: bugfix _get_firefox_start_cmd referencing invalid os._name :: symonk
    • e1a2b532da2 - [py]: Tidy some webelement.py and simplify branched logic :: symonk
    • c22de96c687 - [java] Avoid throwing errors once NetworkInterceptor is closed :: Puja Jagani
    • a5423d92d58 - [py]: Remove invalid argument calls to _extract_and_check until removed :: symonk
    • fcb83491a87 - [py]: Remove invalid argument calls to _extract_and_check until removed :: symonk
    • 7ead8b87577 - [py]: Fix typing.Union t ypes for log_path :: symonk
    • 1d2ea0488e3 - [py]: Additional types; remove unused permissions.py :: symonk
    • 5fba3a2b2d2 - [py]: Remove RemoteDriverServerException :: symonk
    • 4199d70eb19 - [java] Avoiding hiding "internal" package so that selenium-api exports it :: Puja Jagani
    • 1fa4ca61d7e - [py]: Remove comments from tox.ini :: symonk
    • 3a788a383b4 - [py]: docs and type hints for chrome.service :: symonk
    • 7c7e2ecba28 - [py]: docs, type hints and clean up for ChromiumService :: symonk

    ... (truncated)

    Commits
    • 79f1c02 Bumping versions to 4.6.0 and updating changelogs
    • 4ce2649 [dotnet] add Selenium Manager support for Unix
    • 7be7e2e [dotnet] fix the framework conditionals for Selenium Manager
    • 73f9351 Running ./go copyright:update
    • 06e639e Including Rust in ./go copyright:update task
    • b0db1ee [dotnet] add Selenium Manager support for linux & mac
    • ba1821d Fix platform list in #scroll_by guard
    • 7bb31fc mark Selenium Manager implementations as beta
    • 718f4f2 [rb] update guards for tests on Windows
    • 878ce7e Ensure all ruby_test targets have access to :remote
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  • 8

    Bump @graphql-codegen/client-preset from 1.2.3 to 1.2.4 in /frontend

    Bumps @graphql-codegen/client-preset from 1.2.3 to 1.2.4.

    Release notes

    Sourced from @​graphql-codegen/client-preset's releases.

    Release 2022-08-04T13:12:01.667Z

    @​graphql-codegen/graphql-modules-preset@​2.5.0

    Minor Changes

    Release 2022-08-04T13:05:23.977Z

    No release notes provided.

    Release 2022-08-04T13:02:57.827Z

    No release notes provided.

    Changelog

    Sourced from @​graphql-codegen/client-preset's changelog.

    1.2.4

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  • 9

    Bump @graphql-codegen/cli from 2.16.1 to 2.16.2 in /frontend

    Bumps @graphql-codegen/cli from 2.16.1 to 2.16.2.

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    Sourced from @​graphql-codegen/cli's changelog.

    2.16.2

    Patch Changes

    Commits
    • 8248c50 chore(release): update monorepo packages versions (#8717)
    • a9c5414 Updated @​graphql-tools/prisma-loader package (#8765)
    • ed87c78 fix(deps): update dependency @​graphql-tools/utils to v9 (#8771)
    • e6ff224 fix(deps): update dependency cosmiconfig-typescript-loader to v4.3.0 (#8729)
    • b1512a5 fix(deps): update dependency cosmiconfig-typescript-loader to v4.2.0 (#8715)
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  • 10

    Bump github.com/rs/cors from 1.8.2 to 1.8.3

    Bumps github.com/rs/cors from 1.8.2 to 1.8.3.

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  • 11

    Bump github.com/goreleaser/goreleaser from 1.13.1 to 1.14.0

    Bumps github.com/goreleaser/goreleaser from 1.13.1 to 1.14.0.

    Release notes

    Sourced from github.com/goreleaser/goreleaser's releases.

    v1.14.0

    Changelog

    New Features

    • 541e3dfed9b23e277948ea641db91ea468aafc88: feat(brew): allow to template brew.install (#3593) (@​caarlos0)
    • 1b8395d6b6bd83bbf2d519261f1f003afa502fe5: feat(build): allow to template env (#3592) (@​caarlos0)
    • b66568529dfa4b21a14a67981b9e621f01c62aad: feat: add windows to default builds (#3581) (@​jolheiser)
    • 2e5a8e5a54a9fbc24fbdb484d8781abce1968d9d: feat: allow to template archives.files.info (#3630) (@​caarlos0)
    • a209757ad2b47cb4a6f7a1c6b7dbe5dcf4fece15: feat: better archives relative paths (#3656) (@​caarlos0)
    • f5696d01ee7c380c0e5fc681fc58bf6f381dbfcf: feat: custom tag.sort (#3611) (@​caarlos0)
    • e54656438b4bb8b1af483943891db226a090f841: feat: deprecate replacements (#3589) (@​caarlos0)
    • 937067697b4e0e86d1876c5751efb97ed3046494: feat: set file info for binaries inside archives (#3618) (@​caarlos0)
    • f3f1c08cafbe86b2a8caf9fbcbfac516be45f250: feat: title template function (#3590) (@​caarlos0)

    Bug fixes

    • d4b570a00271683fa26248212e0a221236f3100c: fix: clarify scoop no windows archive errors (@​caarlos0)
    • ddf7660b6d6621804c15cbbb3864a66de9f06876: fix: extra quotes on goreleaser archives (@​caarlos0)
    • a3d3ab2058bceb4041087beab0178f1e0ea940b1: fix: improve docker warning (@​caarlos0)
    • 6ff89366ca9b95f4a2056f6ecac548c09e584eb0: fix: improve nfpm error (@​caarlos0)
    • e72ab30ac83b8747e1b182dfc480d124e2615640: fix: improve schema for signs (#3603) (@​caarlos0)
    • 21648d187cef7b536bd152f6c153b6e765456359: fix: init with extra quote (@​caarlos0)
    • d7ce4841c8f8cfe800f723067e22cff43e129621: fix: jsonschema for chocolateys (@​caarlos0)
    • 494ba292677e76affe18cd095fcefd90a6aa77df: fix: lint issue (@​caarlos0)
    • 50bd78439c2bac7bd8031c9e659391326978db34: fix: log request-id on upload error and release create/update (#3608) (@​caarlos0)
    • f05f3b5b7f52b62ceee7eed2d20b2ac2d88ff39b: fix: merge issues (@​caarlos0)
    • c2adc1727f8591c5321862bfa95465098d4e5e71: fix: missing digests on manifests (#3602) (@​caarlos0)
    • 46fdb5552a0ff93efc36e9847a3c1a343007f6e5: fix: multiple files with same name warning (#3660) (@​caarlos0)
    • 33528d701a0c903dd4db806a2bc091a5d1a19897: fix: remove warning (@​caarlos0)
    • 19ab124f1bec275ccc08452ada8deb7f1bf0c612: fix: retain symlinks added to zip archives (#3585) (@​orirawlings)
    • a1305d391226ebd046f37b3014412bccde45fb59: fix: validate env templates (#3591) (@​caarlos0)
    • 24d86475b48dec37a93639d98b65031addb903f7: fix: warn if list has multiple files with same name (#3607) (@​caarlos0)

    Dependency updates

    • cac3f1756213e454fbf154dba9d7ecebc6af0e72: feat(deps): build with go 1.19.4 (#3644) (@​caarlos0)
    • c8f007653c21ba99c39d5721d4aee3757f7f984a: feat(deps): bump github.com/Masterminds/semver/v3 from 3.1.1 to 3.2.0 (#3606) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 691234d40268fc49c9202b1592317a66bbd18dee: feat(deps): bump github.com/atc0005/go-teams-notify/v2 from 2.6.1 to 2.7.0 (#3638) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 583bca59aa623228bae3ebcdc3eb3cb1b3f2adc0: feat(deps): bump github.com/caarlos0/log from 0.1.10 to 0.2.0 (#3634) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 8480d3090e438c80cd3c275c67edcf47268680b3: feat(deps): bump github.com/caarlos0/log from 0.2.0 to 0.2.1 (#3646) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 708375193433f3bcbd384010dbb8a9698a453637: feat(deps): bump github.com/dghubble/oauth1 from 0.7.1 to 0.7.2 (#3627) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 9abc613ad1e205d6eab4ed977e15bf4e48c8abee: feat(deps): bump github.com/disgoorg/disgo from 0.13.21 to 0.13.22 (#3577) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • a2308ee6083a76076cd769687a2135905b14fb20: feat(deps): bump github.com/disgoorg/disgo from 0.13.22 to 0.14.0 (#3610) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • d32b420d0cf78e449d161649523405be0fe30326: feat(deps): bump github.com/disgoorg/disgo from 0.14.0 to 0.14.1 (#3650) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 261cc8a5cdff69fe8c401c1c8ccb0fe6c94c8fef: feat(deps): bump github.com/google/go-github/v48 from 48.1.0 to 48.2.0 (#3633) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 45868b8e5bd65a45e2e024950a4d3f4395871b29: feat(deps): bump github.com/goreleaser/nfpm/v2 from 2.22.1 to 2.22.2 (#3613) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • b6cac24c7989f1199f8e0c2afba2711ef2370a56: feat(deps): bump github.com/slack-go/slack from 0.11.4 to 0.12.0 (#3649) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 196fa6c1e96cf9b6da95f228ee17a025c24579df: feat(deps): bump github.com/slack-go/slack from 0.12.0 to 0.12.1 (#3654) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • d0e91cb99be932bbcbdbdf32aaf23de54921c890: feat(deps): bump github.com/ulikunitz/xz from 0.5.10 to 0.5.11 (#3639) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 85f4be900e4f6e7104e383ed4ea52cdc56ab62b5: feat(deps): bump github.com/xanzy/go-gitlab from 0.74.0 to 0.76.0 (#3578) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • 6b01982e1be074b55d60afa6acf16950bbd80af6: feat(deps): bump github.com/xanzy/go-gitlab from 0.76.0 to 0.77.0 (#3637) (@​dependabot[bot])
    • e8773b7f9df8c94c60d8f498ee96b35dd900f785: feat(deps): bump golang from 1.19.3-alpine to 1.19.4-alpine (#3626) (@​dependabot[bot])

    ... (truncated)

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  • 12

    CI: If auto-generated code is out of sync or linting can be auto-fixed, automatically fix it

    Some code is generated and can be out of sync if make generate was not executed. There are some linting issues that can be fixed automatically. In both those cases it's more developer friendly to fix it automatically and not just display an error.

    https://github.com/marketplace/actions/create-or-update-pull-request

    If it happens on main then open a new PR to solve it. If it happens inside a PR then automatically append a commit to that PR fixing the issue.

  • 13

    Dependabot: Inefficient Regular Expression Complexity in nth-check

    Dependabot cannot update nth-check to a non-vulnerable version

    The latest possible version that can be installed is 1.0.2 because of the following conflicting dependencies:

    [email protected] requires [email protected]^1.0.2 via a transitive dependency on [email protected] No patched version available for nth-check

    The earliest fixed version is 2.0.1.

    It might be a false positive: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/71282206/github-dependabot-alert-inefficient-regular-expression-complexity-in-nth-check

  • 14

    CI: Verify generated code is up to date

    Currently three places are using generated code:

    • cleosrv: go run github.com/99designs/gqlgen generate
    • cleoc go run github.com/Khan/genqlient
    • frontend graphql-codegen

    It's necessary to ensure that they don't get out of sync. They all depend on cleosrv/graph/schema.graphqls, which should therefore be moved to the top level of the repository anyway.